feat: 研究规则 rules 模块（任务书 02）
rules 是纯计算，src/rules 共 1761 行：方法.md 第六部分的全部公式、第七部分的余额与扣次、4.2 的入口分配，以及种子与规则登记表。 预期值有三个来源：方法.md 的手算例；tests/fixtures/rules/ 下不看实现写的 Python 脚本；参考项目 calc15、calc14b 里与现行方法一致的部分。审阅做了两轮，每轮都换一个全新上下文的子 Agent，提出的问题都已修复或写明不修的理由。 用户确认的约定（原话"1–8 都同意"）：入池、采纳、消融中发现都用严格不等号；成本用 max(0, ĝ₀)；没测的格附"含它的最好组合"的净值；战绩在分数原值上判。三个数改为严格递增后，删掉了尖峰的全部专门处理（bfb96ba）。vocab 里 Range 的说明同步改为严格递增。 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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import type { Direction, Measured, Range } from "../vocab/index.ts";
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import { compareIds, improvement, INDISPENSABLE_SUPPORT, INTERACTION_CUT } from "./basics.ts";
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import { bitWidth, covers, disagreement, surprise, worldBits } from "./bits.ts";
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import { ablationCellMixture, mixtureRange } from "./distribution.ts";
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import { adoptionLine } from "./forward.ts";
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// 方法.md 6.6 消融结算，4.3 ⑬ 列格、⑰ 结算与"消融中发现"。
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/**
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* 一格的结局（6.6"一格的几种结局"）：
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* - valid：有效分数（含合法化后的分数），只有它进标签的求和、判确认与否定、记比特和惊讶；
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* - insufficient：证据不足（启动了，但跑崩、超时、没有产物、修不了或判为违规）；
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* - untested：没测；
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* - cannotRun：跑不起来（不启动、不扣次）；
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* - joint：一起关，off 是实际关掉的全部因子；score 是那次运行的有效分数，没有时为 null。
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*/
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export type CellOutcome =
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| { kind: "valid"; score: number }
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| { kind: "insufficient" }
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| { kind: "untested" }
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| { kind: "cannotRun" }
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| { kind: "joint"; off: readonly string[]; score: number | null };
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export interface AblationCell {
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factor: string;
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outcome: CellOutcome;
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}
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/** 一条解释：作者，以及对每一格给的三个数（关掉这个因子后的分数，原值）。 */
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export interface AblationExplanation {
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id: string;
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author: string;
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cells: ReadonlyArray<{ factor: string; range: Range }>;
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}
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/** 列格（4.3 ⑬）：被采纳改法的每个因子各一格"只关掉它"，按因子编号排。 */
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export function listCells(factors: readonly string[]): string[] {
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return [...factors].sort(compareIds);
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}
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/**
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* 总提升 G = f(完整) − f(基线)（6.6"撑几成"，按方向折算）。被消融的一定是被采纳的改法，
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* 所以 G 不小于采纳线；G ≤ 0 说明上游选错了改法，直接报错。
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*/
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export function totalGain(baseline: number, full: number, direction: Direction): number {
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const gain = improvement(baseline, full, direction);
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if (!(gain > 0)) {
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throw new Error(
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`消融结算（方法.md 6.6"撑几成"）：总提升 G = ${gain} ≤ 0（基线 ${baseline}，完整 ${full}，方向 ${direction}）；` +
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`被消融的必须是被采纳的改法`,
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);
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}
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return gain;
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}
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/** 撑几成（6.6）= [f(完整) − f(关掉 p)] ÷ G，按方向折算，不截断。 */
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export function supportOf(baseline: number, full: number, off: number, direction: Direction): number {
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return improvement(off, full, direction) / totalGain(baseline, full, direction);
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}
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/**
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* 配合关系标签代号（6.6 表，从上往下判，命中即停）：
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* offBetter 有因子关掉反而更好；incomplete 不全；indispensable 缺一不可；complementary 互补；
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* substitute 替代；independent 各管各。中文和"给下一轮的话"由 materials 写。
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*/
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export type SynergyLabel = "offBetter" | "incomplete" | "indispensable" | "complementary" | "substitute" | "independent";
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/**
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* 配合关系标签（6.6）。supports 是每个因子"只关它、有效分数"的撑几成，没有这样的格时为 null。
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* 每个因子都有有效格时给出 Σ撑 和相对交互量 i = Σ撑 − 1，否则这两个数为 null。
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*/
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export function synergyLabel(supports: ReadonlyArray<number | null>): {
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label: SynergyLabel;
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supportSum: number | null;
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interaction: number | null;
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} {
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const complete = supports.every((s) => s !== null);
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const supportSum = complete ? (supports as number[]).reduce((t, s) => t + s, 0) : null;
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const interaction = supportSum === null ? null : supportSum - 1;
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const label: SynergyLabel = supports.some((s) => s !== null && s < 0)
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? "offBetter"
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: !complete
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? "incomplete"
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: (supports as number[]).every((s) => s > INDISPENSABLE_SUPPORT)
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? "indispensable"
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: interaction! > INTERACTION_CUT
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? "complementary"
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: interaction! < -INTERACTION_CUT
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? "substitute"
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: "independent";
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return { label, supportSum, interaction };
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}
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/**
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* "一起关"是对称的（6.6）：设置由实际关掉的因子集合决定，关 p 连带关 q 和关 q 连带关 p 是同一种设置。
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* 给出每一格的设置键，以及同一次消融里因子编号更小、设置相同的第一格（有它就沿用它的结果，不重跑、不重复扣次）。
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*/
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export function sharedSettings(
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cells: ReadonlyArray<{ factor: string; off: readonly string[] }>,
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): Array<{ factor: string; key: string; sameAs: string | null }> {
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const first = new Map<string, string>();
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return [...cells]
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.sort((a, b) => compareIds(a.factor, b.factor))
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.map((c) => {
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const key = [...new Set(c.off)].sort(compareIds).join("+");
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const sameAs = first.get(key) ?? null;
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if (sameAs === null) first.set(key, c.factor);
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return { factor: c.factor, key, sameAs };
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});
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}
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export type ExplanationVerdict = "confirmed" | "denied";
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/**
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* 确认与否定（6.6）：每条解释在每个有效格上，实测落在它自己的 [q1, q9] 里（含两端）记确认，否则记否定。
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* 解释按编号排，格按因子编号排，只列有效格。
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*/
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export function judgeExplanations(
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explanations: readonly AblationExplanation[],
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cells: readonly AblationCell[],
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): Array<{ id: string; verdicts: Array<{ factor: string; verdict: ExplanationVerdict }> }> {
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const valid = [...cells].sort((a, b) => compareIds(a.factor, b.factor)).filter((c) => c.outcome.kind === "valid");
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return [...explanations]
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.sort((a, b) => compareIds(a.id, b.id))
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.map((e) => ({
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id: e.id,
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verdicts: valid.map((c) => {
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const range = e.cells.find((x) => x.factor === c.factor)!.range;
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const score = (c.outcome as { score: number }).score;
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return { factor: c.factor, verdict: covers(range, score) ? ("confirmed" as const) : ("denied" as const) };
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}),
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}));
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}
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/**
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* 现有测法分不开（6.6）：在所有有效格上确认与否定序列完全相同的解释归为一组，只列两条以上的组。
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* 没有有效格时不标。组内按解释编号排，组之间按第一条的编号排。
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*/
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export function inseparableGroups(judgments: ReturnType<typeof judgeExplanations>): string[][] {
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if (judgments.length === 0 || judgments[0]!.verdicts.length === 0) return [];
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const groups = new Map<string, string[]>();
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for (const j of judgments) {
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const key = j.verdicts.map((v) => v.verdict).join(",");
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groups.set(key, [...(groups.get(key) ?? []), j.id]);
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}
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return [...groups.values()]
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.filter((g) => g.length > 1)
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.map((g) => g.sort(compareIds))
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.sort((a, b) => compareIds(a[0]!, b[0]!));
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}
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/**
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* 消融中发现（4.3 ⑰）：有效格和有分数的"一起关"格里，比当前基线（刚被采纳的完整代码，B = f(完整)）
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* 的改进严格大于采纳线的格过线；几格过线取分数最好的，同分取因子编号小的。
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*/
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export function ablationFinding(input: {
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full: number;
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knownBest: number | null;
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epsilon: number;
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direction: Direction;
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cells: readonly AblationCell[];
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}): {
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line: number;
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quarter: number | null;
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passed: Array<{ factor: string; score: number; improvement: number }>;
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chosen: string | null;
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} {
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const { line, quarter } = adoptionLine({ ...input, baseline: input.full });
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const passed = [...input.cells]
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.sort((a, b) => compareIds(a.factor, b.factor))
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.flatMap((c) => {
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const o = c.outcome;
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const score = o.kind === "valid" || (o.kind === "joint" && o.score !== null) ? o.score : null;
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if (score === null) return [];
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const gain = improvement(input.full, score, input.direction);
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return gain > line ? [{ factor: c.factor, score, improvement: gain }] : [];
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});
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let chosen: (typeof passed)[number] | null = null;
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for (const p of passed) if (chosen === null || p.improvement > chosen.improvement) chosen = p;
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return { line, quarter, passed, chosen: chosen?.factor ?? null };
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}
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/** 一次消融结算的输入（4.3 ⑰）。baseline 是本批基线 b，full 是被采纳的完整代码的分数。 */
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export interface SettleInput {
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baseline: number;
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full: number;
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direction: Direction;
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epsilon: number;
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knownBest: number | null;
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lambda: number;
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/** 被采纳改法的因子编号：按它列格、贴标签，每个因子都要有一格。 */
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factors: readonly string[];
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cells: readonly AblationCell[];
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explanations: readonly AblationExplanation[];
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}
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/**
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* 一次消融的结算（4.3 ⑰、6.6、6.9）：每格的撑几成、合并范围，有效格的世界比特、惊讶、分歧量（格宽 ε/100，
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* 从 b 起切）；配合关系标签；每条解释的确认与否定；分不开的组；消融中发现。押的因子另由 chooseBet 算。
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* 格按因子清单列（4.3 ⑬ 每个因子一格）：清单里的因子没有格、或者有清单外的格，都是上游的错，直接报错，
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* 不把漏掉的因子当成"不全"。
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*/
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export function settleAblation(input: SettleInput): {
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gain: number;
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cells: Array<{
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factor: string;
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outcome: CellOutcome["kind"];
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support: number | null;
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merged: Range;
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worldBits: number | null;
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surprise: { cell: number; prior: number; bits: Measured } | null;
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disagreement: number | null;
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}>;
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label: ReturnType<typeof synergyLabel>;
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judgments: ReturnType<typeof judgeExplanations>;
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inseparable: string[][];
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finding: ReturnType<typeof ablationFinding>;
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} {
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const gain = totalGain(input.baseline, input.full, input.direction);
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const width = bitWidth(input.epsilon);
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const factors = listCells(input.factors);
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for (const c of input.cells) {
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if (!factors.includes(c.factor)) {
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throw new Error(`消融结算（方法.md 4.3 ⑬ 列格）：格 ${c.factor} 不在被采纳改法的因子清单 ${factors.join("、")} 里`);
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}
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}
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const cells = factors
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.map((f) => {
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const c = input.cells.find((x) => x.factor === f);
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if (c === undefined) throw new Error(`消融结算（方法.md 4.3 ⑬ 列格）：因子 ${f} 没有对应的格`);
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return c;
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})
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.map((c) => {
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const entries = input.explanations.map((e) => ({
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id: e.id,
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author: e.author,
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range: e.cells.find((x) => x.factor === c.factor)!.range,
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}));
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const mixture = ablationCellMixture(entries, input.lambda);
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const o = c.outcome;
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const valid = o.kind === "valid";
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return {
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factor: c.factor,
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outcome: o.kind,
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support: valid ? improvement(o.score, input.full, input.direction) / gain : null,
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merged: mixtureRange(mixture),
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worldBits: valid ? worldBits(mixture, input.baseline, width) : null,
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surprise: valid ? surprise(mixture, input.baseline, width, o.score) : null,
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disagreement: valid ? disagreement(entries, input.baseline, width) : null,
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};
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});
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const judgments = judgeExplanations(input.explanations, input.cells);
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return {
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gain,
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cells,
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label: synergyLabel(cells.map((c) => c.support)),
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judgments,
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inseparable: inseparableGroups(judgments),
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finding: ablationFinding(input),
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};
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}
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