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feat: 研究规则 rules 模块（任务书 02）

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rules 是纯计算，src/rules 共 1761 行：方法.md 第六部分的全部公式、第七部分的余额与扣次、4.2 的入口分配，以及种子与规则登记表。

预期值有三个来源：方法.md 的手算例；tests/fixtures/rules/ 下不看实现写的 Python 脚本；参考项目 calc15、calc14b 里与现行方法一致的部分。审阅做了两轮，每轮都换一个全新上下文的子 Agent，提出的问题都已修复或写明不修的理由。

用户确认的约定（原话"1–8 都同意"）：入池、采纳、消融中发现都用严格不等号；成本用 max(0, ĝ₀)；没测的格附"含它的最好组合"的净值；战绩在分数原值上判。三个数改为严格递增后，删掉了尖峰的全部专门处理（bfb96ba）。vocab 里 Range 的说明同步改为严格递增。

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
iomgaa
2026-10-02 01:50:21 -04:00
parent bfb96ba7d7
commit 60c21ae346
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{
"generator": "gen_forward_info.py",
"tolerance": {
"abs": 1e-12,
"bits": 1e-10,
"surprise": "1e-12 + 2^-50 / (p * ln 2)",
"note": "abs 用于事前把握、覆盖率、作者乐观差等普通数值。bits 用于世界比特和分歧量：本脚本按有理数算出每格质量后用浮点求熵（fsum），浮点实现每格质量是两个浮点 F 值之差，约 2 万到 5 万个小格累加后末位误差积到 1e-12 量级（第二轮审阅实测最大差 3.5e-12），留约 30 倍余量取 1e-10。surprise 是惊讶的容差公式：本脚本的 p 是有理数精确差，浮点实现只能算 F(右端) − F(左端)，两个不超过 1 的浮点数相减已有几个 2⁻⁵³ 的绝对误差，p 很小时（如 2.5e-6）换成 −log₂p 就放大成约 1e-12 量级的差。状态、格号、落点、计数必须完全相同。"
},
"scenarios": [
{
"name": "bits_forward_r1_real",
"section": "6.9；约定 31–33",
"params": {
"eps": 0.01,
"lambda": 0.1,
"delta": 0.0001,
"direction": "maximize"
},
"input": {
"b": 0.9597642169962064,
"candidates": {
"r1-v1-c1": [
{
"researcher": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 2.0,
"q5": 2.45,
"q9": 2.6
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 2.2,
"q5": 2.5,
"q9": 2.62
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-3",
"range": {
"q1": 2.2,
"q5": 2.5,
"q9": 2.63
}
}
],
"r1-v1-c2": [
{
"researcher": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 1.85,
"q5": 2.35,
"q9": 2.6
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 1.6,
"q5": 2.35,
"q9": 2.6
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-3",
"range": {
"q1": 1.8,
"q5": 2.4,
"q9": 2.62
}
}
],
"r1-v1-c3": [
{
"researcher": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 2.3,
"q5": 2.5,
"q9": 2.62
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 2.42,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.6
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-3",
"range": {
"q1": 2.1,
"q5": 2.5,
"q9": 2.6
}
}
]
},
"actual": {
"r1-v1-c3": 1.552176048093269
},
"farValue": 10.0
},
"expected": {
"candidates": {
"r1-v1-c1": {
"worldBits": 13.424994765554958
},
"r1-v1-c2": {
"worldBits": 14.07304207309006
},
"r1-v1-c3": {
"worldBits": 13.018692667257758,
"surprise": {
"status": "ok",
"bin": 5924,
"p": 2.499999999999725e-06,
"surprise": 18.609640474436972
}
}
},
"surpriseFarValue": {
"status": "priorZero",
"bin": 90402,
"p": 0.0
},
"disagreementC3": {
"disagreement": 0.22345314430460128,
"avgBits": 12.401558575360262,
"eachBits": [
12.319392171330211,
11.527004851853361,
12.68791926998341
]
}
},
"note": "原值上从 b 起切 Δ=ε/100 的小格，合并分布 = 三人折线 0.9 + 共同预留 0.1。c3 的实测 1.552176 远低于各人范围，只落在预留里。farValue=10 在预留之外，事前把握为 0，状态 priorZero（不是 0 或无穷大）。分歧量只用三人折线（不掺预留）。"
},
{
"name": "bits_ablation_cell_r1_p1",
"section": "6.9；约定 31–33",
"params": {
"eps": 0.01,
"lambda": 0.1,
"delta": 0.0001
},
"input": {
"b": 0.9597642169962064,
"explanations": [
{
"id": "r1-e1-1",
"author": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 1.2,
"q5": 2,
"q9": 2.44
}
},
{
"id": "r1-e1-2",
"author": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 1.22,
"q5": 1.4,
"q9": 1.52
}
},
{
"id": "r1-e2-1",
"author": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 1.05,
"q5": 1.35,
"q9": 1.95
}
},
{
"id": "r1-e2-2",
"author": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 0.95,
"q5": 1.3,
"q9": 2.1
}
},
{
"id": "r1-e3-1",
"author": "researcher-3",
"range": {
"q1": 1.15,
"q5": 1.36,
"q9": 1.55
}
},
{
"id": "r1-e3-2",
"author": "researcher-3",
"range": {
"q1": 1.2,
"q5": 1.42,
"q9": 2.46
}
}
],
"actual": 2.250011787062861
},
"expected": {
"worldBits": 14.423852532506046,
"surprise": {
"status": "ok",
"bin": 12902,
"p": 2.5393497631454448e-05,
"surprise": 15.265181352865099
},
"disagreement": 0.17487769063959568,
"avgBits": 13.988099142237102,
"eachPersonBits": [
13.828510269170529,
14.016547746252732,
13.594606339369257
]
},
"note": "消融格的合并分布 = 6 条解释（每条 0.15）+ 这一格的预留 0.1。分歧量：每人取自己几条解释的等权平均作为'这个人的折线'，再比较三人平均的比特与各人比特的平均（不掺预留）。"
},
{
"name": "bits_minimize_bin_edges",
"section": "6.9；约定 31–32",
"params": {
"eps": 0.01,
"lambda": 0.1,
"delta": 0.0001,
"direction": "minimize"
},
"input": {
"b": 0.4,
"candidates": {
"c1": [
{
"researcher": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 0.36,
"q5": 0.38,
"q9": 0.4
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 0.35,
"q5": 0.37,
"q9": 0.39
}
}
],
"c2": [
{
"researcher": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 0.33,
"q5": 0.36,
"q9": 0.41
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 0.37,
"q5": 0.39,
"q9": 0.42
}
}
],
"c3": [
{
"researcher": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 0.41,
"q5": 0.43,
"q9": 0.46
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 0.4,
"q5": 0.42,
"q9": 0.45
}
}
],
"c4": [
{
"researcher": "researcher-1",
"range": {
"q1": 0.37,
"q5": 0.39,
"q9": 0.4
}
},
{
"researcher": "researcher-2",
"range": {
"q1": 0.38,
"q5": 0.395,
"q9": 0.41
}
}
]
},
"candidate": "c1",
"values": [
0.3999,
0.39990000000000003,
0.4,
0.38,
0.38005
]
},
"expected": {
"worldBits": 10.045467864639367,
"surprise": [
{
"status": "ok",
"bin": -2,
"p": 0.0011513157894735564,
"surprise": 9.762500686273503
},
{
"status": "ok",
"bin": -1,
"p": 0.0011513157894735564,
"surprise": 9.762500686273503
},
{
"status": "ok",
"bin": 0,
"p": 0.0004763157894736314,
"surprise": 11.03579400590999
},
{
"status": "ok",
"bin": -200,
"p": 0.0018263157894734814,
"surprise": 9.096848040414935
},
{
"status": "ok",
"bin": -200,
"p": 0.0018263157894734814,
"surprise": 9.096848040414935
}
],
"edgeMinus1": 0.39990000000000003
},
"note": "越小越好也在分数原值上从 b 起切，第 j 格 [b+jΔ, b+(j+1)Δ)，j 可为负。边界一律按浮点 b + j*Δ 算：b+(-1)Δ = 0.39990000000000003，所以字面 0.3999 落在 j=-2 格，而值正好等于该边界时落在 j=-1 格。合并分布是越小越好的那套（四候选共同预留，在原值上等价于原值折线的最低/最高点）。"
},
{
"name": "landing_segments_endpoints",
"section": "6.9；约定 34",
"params": {},
"input": {
"cases": [
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.4
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.44
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.5
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.52
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.6
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.62
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.65
}
]
},
"expected": {
"segments": [
"below10",
"from10to50",
"from10to50",
"from50to90",
"from50to90",
"from50to90",
"above90"
],
"coverage": 0.7142857142857143
},
"note": "v<q1 below10；q1≤v<q5 from10to50；q5≤v≤q9 from50to90；v>q9 above90。端点：v=q1 归一成到一半，v=q5 和 v=q9 归一半到九成。覆盖率 = 落在 [q1,q9]（含端点）的比例 = 5/7。"
},
{
"name": "coverage_no_samples",
"section": "6.9；约定 34",
"params": {},
"input": {
"cases": []
},
"expected": {
"coverage": {
"status": "noSamples"
}
},
"note": "没有样本时返回明确状态，不是 0 或 NaN。"
},
{
"name": "track_record_counts",
"section": "6.10 第 4 条；约定 37",
"params": {},
"input": {
"forward": [
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.52
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.62
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.7
}
],
"ablation": [
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.44
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 2.44,
"q5": 2.52,
"q9": 2.62
},
"value": 2.3
},
{
"range": {
"q1": 0.99,
"q5": 1.0,
"q9": 1.01
},
"value": 1.0
}
]
},
"expected": {
"forward": {
"medianHigh": 0,
"medianLow": 2,
"pierceUpper": 1,
"pierceLower": 0,
"covered": 2
},
"ablation": {
"medianHigh": 2,
"medianLow": 0,
"pierceUpper": 0,
"pierceLower": 1,
"covered": 2
}
},
"note": "分数原值、不按方向。q5>v 中位数偏高；q5<v 偏低；v>q9 穿上沿；v<q1 穿下沿；q1≤v≤q9 包住。v=q5 既不偏高也不偏低；v=q9 算包住、不算穿上沿；窄范围 (0.99,1,1.01) 实测 1 只算包住。正向与消融分开数。"
},
{
"name": "author_vs_merged",
"section": "6.10 第 4 条；约定 37",
"params": {
"direction": "maximize"
},
"input": {
"items": [
{
"candidate": "r1-v1-c3",
"author": {
"q1": 2.1,
"q5": 2.5,
"q9": 2.6
},
"merged": {
"q1": 2.1289473684210525,
"q5": 2.5022627737226277,
"q9": 2.6276315789473683
},
"value": 1.552176048093269,
"ran": true
},
{
"candidate": "r1-v1-c1",
"author": {
"q1": 2.2,
"q5": 2.5,
"q9": 2.63
},
"merged": {
"q1": 1.9871428571428573,
"q5": 2.4653846153846155,
"q9": 2.6470027247956405
},
"value": null,
"ran": false
}
]
},
"expected": {
"rows": [
{
"candidate": "r1-v1-c3",
"q5Diff": -0.002262773722627731,
"authorSegment": "below10",
"mergedSegment": "below10"
}
]
},
"note": "只收跑过且有有效成绩的候选（c1 没跑，不进）。q5Diff = 按方向的 作者q5 − 合并q5（>0 作者更乐观）。合并范围取 forward.json 里 forward_merge_r1_real 的原值分位数。作者自评三个数是示意输入。"
}
]
}