{
 "generator": "gen_forward_info.py",
 "tolerance": {
  "abs": 1e-12,
  "bits": 1e-10,
  "surprise": "1e-12 + 2^-50 / (p * ln 2)",
  "note": "abs 用于事前把握、覆盖率、作者乐观差等普通数值。bits 用于世界比特和分歧量：本脚本按有理数算出每格质量后用浮点求熵（fsum），浮点实现每格质量是两个浮点 F 值之差，约 2 万到 5 万个小格累加后末位误差积到 1e-12 量级（第二轮审阅实测最大差 3.5e-12），留约 30 倍余量取 1e-10。surprise 是惊讶的容差公式：本脚本的 p 是有理数精确差，浮点实现只能算 F(右端) − F(左端)，两个不超过 1 的浮点数相减已有几个 2⁻⁵³ 的绝对误差，p 很小时（如 2.5e-6）换成 −log₂p 就放大成约 1e-12 量级的差。状态、格号、落点、计数必须完全相同。"
 },
 "scenarios": [
  {
   "name": "bits_forward_r1_real",
   "section": "6.9；约定 31–33",
   "params": {
    "eps": 0.01,
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "delta": 0.0001,
    "direction": "maximize"
   },
   "input": {
    "b": 0.9597642169962064,
    "candidates": {
     "r1-v1-c1": [
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-1",
       "range": {
        "q1": 2.0,
        "q5": 2.45,
        "q9": 2.6
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-2",
       "range": {
        "q1": 2.2,
        "q5": 2.5,
        "q9": 2.62
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-3",
       "range": {
        "q1": 2.2,
        "q5": 2.5,
        "q9": 2.63
       }
      }
     ],
     "r1-v1-c2": [
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-1",
       "range": {
        "q1": 1.85,
        "q5": 2.35,
        "q9": 2.6
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-2",
       "range": {
        "q1": 1.6,
        "q5": 2.35,
        "q9": 2.6
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-3",
       "range": {
        "q1": 1.8,
        "q5": 2.4,
        "q9": 2.62
       }
      }
     ],
     "r1-v1-c3": [
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-1",
       "range": {
        "q1": 2.3,
        "q5": 2.5,
        "q9": 2.62
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-2",
       "range": {
        "q1": 2.42,
        "q5": 2.52,
        "q9": 2.6
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-3",
       "range": {
        "q1": 2.1,
        "q5": 2.5,
        "q9": 2.6
       }
      }
     ]
    },
    "actual": {
     "r1-v1-c3": 1.552176048093269
    },
    "farValue": 10.0
   },
   "expected": {
    "candidates": {
     "r1-v1-c1": {
      "worldBits": 13.424994765554958
     },
     "r1-v1-c2": {
      "worldBits": 14.07304207309006
     },
     "r1-v1-c3": {
      "worldBits": 13.018692667257758,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": 5924,
       "p": 2.499999999999725e-06,
       "surprise": 18.609640474436972
      }
     }
    },
    "surpriseFarValue": {
     "status": "priorZero",
     "bin": 90402,
     "p": 0.0
    },
    "disagreementC3": {
     "disagreement": 0.22345314430460128,
     "avgBits": 12.401558575360262,
     "eachBits": [
      12.319392171330211,
      11.527004851853361,
      12.68791926998341
     ]
    }
   },
   "note": "原值上从 b 起切 Δ=ε/100 的小格，合并分布 = 三人折线 0.9 + 共同预留 0.1。c3 的实测 1.552176 远低于各人范围，只落在预留里。farValue=10 在预留之外，事前把握为 0，状态 priorZero（不是 0 或无穷大）。分歧量只用三人折线（不掺预留）。"
  },
  {
   "name": "bits_ablation_cell_r1_p1",
   "section": "6.9；约定 31–33",
   "params": {
    "eps": 0.01,
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "delta": 0.0001
   },
   "input": {
    "b": 0.9597642169962064,
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "r1-e1-1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "range": {
       "q1": 1.2,
       "q5": 2,
       "q9": 2.44
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "r1-e1-2",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "range": {
       "q1": 1.22,
       "q5": 1.4,
       "q9": 1.52
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "r1-e2-1",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "range": {
       "q1": 1.05,
       "q5": 1.35,
       "q9": 1.95
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "r1-e2-2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "range": {
       "q1": 0.95,
       "q5": 1.3,
       "q9": 2.1
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "r1-e3-1",
      "author": "researcher-3",
      "range": {
       "q1": 1.15,
       "q5": 1.36,
       "q9": 1.55
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "r1-e3-2",
      "author": "researcher-3",
      "range": {
       "q1": 1.2,
       "q5": 1.42,
       "q9": 2.46
      }
     }
    ],
    "actual": 2.250011787062861
   },
   "expected": {
    "worldBits": 14.423852532506046,
    "surprise": {
     "status": "ok",
     "bin": 12902,
     "p": 2.5393497631454448e-05,
     "surprise": 15.265181352865099
    },
    "disagreement": 0.17487769063959568,
    "avgBits": 13.988099142237102,
    "eachPersonBits": [
     13.828510269170529,
     14.016547746252732,
     13.594606339369257
    ]
   },
   "note": "消融格的合并分布 = 6 条解释（每条 0.15）+ 这一格的预留 0.1。分歧量：每人取自己几条解释的等权平均作为'这个人的折线'，再比较三人平均的比特与各人比特的平均（不掺预留）。"
  },
  {
   "name": "bits_minimize_bin_edges",
   "section": "6.9；约定 31–32",
   "params": {
    "eps": 0.01,
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "delta": 0.0001,
    "direction": "minimize"
   },
   "input": {
    "b": 0.4,
    "candidates": {
     "c1": [
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-1",
       "range": {
        "q1": 0.36,
        "q5": 0.38,
        "q9": 0.4
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-2",
       "range": {
        "q1": 0.35,
        "q5": 0.37,
        "q9": 0.39
       }
      }
     ],
     "c2": [
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-1",
       "range": {
        "q1": 0.33,
        "q5": 0.36,
        "q9": 0.41
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-2",
       "range": {
        "q1": 0.37,
        "q5": 0.39,
        "q9": 0.42
       }
      }
     ],
     "c3": [
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-1",
       "range": {
        "q1": 0.41,
        "q5": 0.43,
        "q9": 0.46
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-2",
       "range": {
        "q1": 0.4,
        "q5": 0.42,
        "q9": 0.45
       }
      }
     ],
     "c4": [
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-1",
       "range": {
        "q1": 0.37,
        "q5": 0.39,
        "q9": 0.4
       }
      },
      {
       "researcher": "researcher-2",
       "range": {
        "q1": 0.38,
        "q5": 0.395,
        "q9": 0.41
       }
      }
     ]
    },
    "candidate": "c1",
    "values": [
     0.3999,
     0.39990000000000003,
     0.4,
     0.38,
     0.38005
    ]
   },
   "expected": {
    "worldBits": 10.045467864639367,
    "surprise": [
     {
      "status": "ok",
      "bin": -2,
      "p": 0.0011513157894735564,
      "surprise": 9.762500686273503
     },
     {
      "status": "ok",
      "bin": -1,
      "p": 0.0011513157894735564,
      "surprise": 9.762500686273503
     },
     {
      "status": "ok",
      "bin": 0,
      "p": 0.0004763157894736314,
      "surprise": 11.03579400590999
     },
     {
      "status": "ok",
      "bin": -200,
      "p": 0.0018263157894734814,
      "surprise": 9.096848040414935
     },
     {
      "status": "ok",
      "bin": -200,
      "p": 0.0018263157894734814,
      "surprise": 9.096848040414935
     }
    ],
    "edgeMinus1": 0.39990000000000003
   },
   "note": "越小越好也在分数原值上从 b 起切，第 j 格 [b+jΔ, b+(j+1)Δ)，j 可为负。边界一律按浮点 b + j*Δ 算：b+(-1)Δ = 0.39990000000000003，所以字面 0.3999 落在 j=-2 格，而值正好等于该边界时落在 j=-1 格。合并分布是越小越好的那套（四候选共同预留，在原值上等价于原值折线的最低/最高点）。"
  },
  {
   "name": "landing_segments_endpoints",
   "section": "6.9；约定 34",
   "params": {},
   "input": {
    "cases": [
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.4
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.44
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.5
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.52
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.6
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.62
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.65
     }
    ]
   },
   "expected": {
    "segments": [
     "below10",
     "from10to50",
     "from10to50",
     "from50to90",
     "from50to90",
     "from50to90",
     "above90"
    ],
    "coverage": 0.7142857142857143
   },
   "note": "v<q1 below10；q1≤v<q5 from10to50；q5≤v≤q9 from50to90；v>q9 above90。端点：v=q1 归一成到一半，v=q5 和 v=q9 归一半到九成。覆盖率 = 落在 [q1,q9]（含端点）的比例 = 5/7。"
  },
  {
   "name": "coverage_no_samples",
   "section": "6.9；约定 34",
   "params": {},
   "input": {
    "cases": []
   },
   "expected": {
    "coverage": {
     "status": "noSamples"
    }
   },
   "note": "没有样本时返回明确状态，不是 0 或 NaN。"
  },
  {
   "name": "track_record_counts",
   "section": "6.10 第 4 条；约定 37",
   "params": {},
   "input": {
    "forward": [
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.52
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.62
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.7
     }
    ],
    "ablation": [
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.44
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 2.44,
       "q5": 2.52,
       "q9": 2.62
      },
      "value": 2.3
     },
     {
      "range": {
       "q1": 0.99,
       "q5": 1.0,
       "q9": 1.01
      },
      "value": 1.0
     }
    ]
   },
   "expected": {
    "forward": {
     "medianHigh": 0,
     "medianLow": 2,
     "pierceUpper": 1,
     "pierceLower": 0,
     "covered": 2
    },
    "ablation": {
     "medianHigh": 2,
     "medianLow": 0,
     "pierceUpper": 0,
     "pierceLower": 1,
     "covered": 2
    }
   },
   "note": "分数原值、不按方向。q5>v 中位数偏高；q5<v 偏低；v>q9 穿上沿；v<q1 穿下沿；q1≤v≤q9 包住。v=q5 既不偏高也不偏低；v=q9 算包住、不算穿上沿；窄范围 (0.99,1,1.01) 实测 1 只算包住。正向与消融分开数。"
  },
  {
   "name": "author_vs_merged",
   "section": "6.10 第 4 条；约定 37",
   "params": {
    "direction": "maximize"
   },
   "input": {
    "items": [
     {
      "candidate": "r1-v1-c3",
      "author": {
       "q1": 2.1,
       "q5": 2.5,
       "q9": 2.6
      },
      "merged": {
       "q1": 2.1289473684210525,
       "q5": 2.5022627737226277,
       "q9": 2.6276315789473683
      },
      "value": 1.552176048093269,
      "ran": true
     },
     {
      "candidate": "r1-v1-c1",
      "author": {
       "q1": 2.2,
       "q5": 2.5,
       "q9": 2.63
      },
      "merged": {
       "q1": 1.9871428571428573,
       "q5": 2.4653846153846155,
       "q9": 2.6470027247956405
      },
      "value": null,
      "ran": false
     }
    ]
   },
   "expected": {
    "rows": [
     {
      "candidate": "r1-v1-c3",
      "q5Diff": -0.002262773722627731,
      "authorSegment": "below10",
      "mergedSegment": "below10"
     }
    ]
   },
   "note": "只收跑过且有有效成绩的候选（c1 没跑，不进）。q5Diff = 按方向的 作者q5 − 合并q5（>0 作者更乐观）。合并范围取 forward.json 里 forward_merge_r1_real 的原值分位数。作者自评三个数是示意输入。"
  }
 ]
}