{
 "generator": "gen_diagnosis.py",
 "tolerance": {
  "exact": "有理数精确算出的量（成分权重、事前期望收益、ĝ₀、全做的 VOI、R̂、m′、成本、价值、净值、收益、更新后的权重）：绝对误差 1e-12",
  "exactK1": "只做一个实验的 VOI 是逐段闭式积分，实现用部分格网格近似：|差| ≤ 1e-9 + 2e-4·|精确值|",
  "bits": "世界比特、惊讶、分歧量是浮点：绝对误差 1e-9；合并范围是分位点：绝对误差 1e-9",
  "discrete": "是否诊断、选中的实验、确认与否定、有没有指出方向、实验的结局：必须完全相同"
 },
 "scenarios": [
  {
   "name": "opposite_lambda0",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.0,
    "experiments": [
     "d1"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.15,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.25
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": -0.25,
        "q5": -0.2,
        "q9": -0.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 7,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 4,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.0
    },
    "g0": 0.0,
    "weights": [
     0.5,
     0.5,
     0.0
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1"
      ],
      "voi": 0.1,
      "rHat": 3,
      "mPrime": 1.75,
      "value": 0.0875,
      "cost": 0.0,
      "net": 0.0875
     }
    ],
    "diagnose": true,
    "chosen": [
     "d1"
    ],
    "chosenNet": 0.0875
   },
   "note": "λ = 0，两个成分的范围不相交：做了就知道是哪一条。手算：做了以后 E[max(0, g)] = 0.5 × 0.2 = 0.1，不做时 max(0, E g) = max(0, 0.5×0.2 + 0.5×(−0.2)) = 0，VOI = 0.1。"
  },
  {
   "name": "opposite_lambda01",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.15,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.25
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": -0.25,
        "q5": -0.2,
        "q9": -0.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 7,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 4,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.0
    },
    "g0": 0.0,
    "weights": [
     0.45,
     0.45,
     0.1
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1"
      ],
      "voi": 0.105,
      "rHat": 3,
      "mPrime": 1.75,
      "value": 0.091875,
      "cost": 0.0,
      "net": 0.091875
     }
    ],
    "diagnose": true,
    "chosen": [
     "d1"
    ],
    "chosenNet": 0.091875
   },
   "note": "同上，λ = 0.1，开放预留铺在两端之外。"
  },
  {
   "name": "same_lambda0",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.0,
    "experiments": [
     "d1"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.3
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.3
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 7,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 4,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.2
    },
    "g0": 0.2,
    "weights": [
     0.5,
     0.5,
     0.0
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1"
      ],
      "voi": 0.0,
      "rHat": 3,
      "mPrime": 1.75,
      "value": 0.0,
      "cost": 0.03333333333333333,
      "net": -0.03333333333333333
     }
    ],
    "diagnose": false,
    "chosen": [],
    "chosenNet": 0.0
   },
   "note": "λ = 0，两条解释一样，做不做都不改变看法：VOI = 0（手算：g 的取值范围 0 到 0.4 全在 0 以上，E[max(0, g)] = E g = 0.2）。净值 = −成本 < 0，不诊断。"
  },
  {
   "name": "same_lambda01",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.3
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.3
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 7,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 4,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.2
    },
    "g0": 0.2,
    "weights": [
     0.45,
     0.45,
     0.1
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1"
      ],
      "voi": 0.0025,
      "rHat": 3,
      "mPrime": 1.75,
      "value": 0.0021874999999999998,
      "cost": 0.03333333333333333,
      "net": -0.031145833333333334
     }
    ],
    "diagnose": false,
    "chosen": [],
    "chosenNet": 0.0
   },
   "note": "λ = 0.1：解释们的范围都在 0 以上，只有开放预留（铺在 −0.2 到 0.6）能给出负的结果，所以 VOI 只剩预留带来的一小部分。"
  },
  {
   "name": "multi_all",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.02,
        "q5": 0.05,
        "q9": 0.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.05,
        "q5": 0.0,
        "q9": 0.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.0,
        "q5": 0.1,
        "q9": 0.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.0,
        "q5": 0.03,
        "q9": 0.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": -0.1,
        "q5": -0.05,
        "q9": 0.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-3",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": -0.02,
        "q5": 0.04,
        "q9": 0.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.2,
        "q5": -0.1,
        "q9": 0.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.05,
        "q5": 0.1,
        "q9": 0.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 9,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 4,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.04,
     "d2": 0.034999999999999996,
     "d3": 0.052500000000000005
    },
    "g0": 0.052500000000000005,
    "weights": [
     0.3,
     0.3,
     0.3,
     0.1
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1",
       "d2",
       "d3"
      ],
      "voi": 0.10650259407848324,
      "rHat": 4,
      "mPrime": 1.875,
      "value": 0.09984618194857804,
      "cost": 0.00875,
      "net": 0.09109618194857805
     }
    ],
    "diagnose": true,
    "chosen": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "chosenNet": 0.09109618194857805
   },
   "note": "三个实验不超过 D = 4，只有全做一个组合。R̂ = ⌈8 ÷ 2⌉ = 4，m′ = 1.875，成本 = 2ĝ₀ × (3/4 − 2/3)。"
  },
  {
   "name": "over_cap_d1",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.02,
        "q5": 0.05,
        "q9": 0.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.05,
        "q5": 0.0,
        "q9": 0.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.0,
        "q5": 0.1,
        "q9": 0.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.0,
        "q5": 0.03,
        "q9": 0.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": -0.1,
        "q5": -0.05,
        "q9": 0.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-3",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": -0.02,
        "q5": 0.04,
        "q9": 0.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.2,
        "q5": -0.1,
        "q9": 0.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.05,
        "q5": 0.1,
        "q9": 0.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 9,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 1,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.04,
     "d2": 0.034999999999999996,
     "d3": 0.052500000000000005
    },
    "g0": 0.052500000000000005,
    "weights": [
     0.3,
     0.3,
     0.3,
     0.1
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1"
      ],
      "voi": 0.025331646896146795,
      "rHat": 4,
      "mPrime": 1.875,
      "value": 0.02374841896513762,
      "cost": 0.00875,
      "net": 0.01499841896513762
     },
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d2"
      ],
      "voi": 0.08911080457463884,
      "rHat": 4,
      "mPrime": 1.875,
      "value": 0.08354137928872392,
      "cost": 0.00875,
      "net": 0.07479137928872391
     },
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d3"
      ],
      "voi": 0.08340189036381514,
      "rHat": 4,
      "mPrime": 1.875,
      "value": 0.0781892722160767,
      "cost": 0.00875,
      "net": 0.0694392722160767
     }
    ],
    "diagnose": true,
    "chosen": [
     "d2"
    ],
    "chosenNet": 0.07479137928872391
   },
   "note": "三个实验超过 D = 1：只有三个单实验组合，没有空组合；精确值用逐段闭式积分。"
  },
  {
   "name": "over_cap_d2",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.02,
        "q5": 0.05,
        "q9": 0.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.05,
        "q5": 0.0,
        "q9": 0.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.0,
        "q5": 0.1,
        "q9": 0.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.0,
        "q5": 0.03,
        "q9": 0.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": -0.1,
        "q5": -0.05,
        "q9": 0.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-3",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": -0.02,
        "q5": 0.04,
        "q9": 0.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.2,
        "q5": -0.1,
        "q9": 0.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.05,
        "q5": 0.1,
        "q9": 0.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 9,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 2,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.04,
     "d2": 0.034999999999999996,
     "d3": 0.052500000000000005
    },
    "g0": 0.052500000000000005,
    "weights": [
     0.3,
     0.3,
     0.3,
     0.1
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1",
       "d2"
      ],
      "voi": null
     },
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1",
       "d3"
      ],
      "voi": null
     },
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d2",
       "d3"
      ],
      "voi": null
     }
    ]
   },
   "note": "三个实验超过 D = 2：只有三个两实验组合，没有单实验组合；只检查组合列表（网格近似没有精确值）。"
  },
  {
   "name": "balance_one",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.02,
        "q5": 0.05,
        "q9": 0.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.05,
        "q5": 0.0,
        "q9": 0.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.0,
        "q5": 0.1,
        "q9": 0.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.0,
        "q5": 0.03,
        "q9": 0.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.2,
        "q9": 0.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": -0.1,
        "q5": -0.05,
        "q9": 0.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-3",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": -0.02,
        "q5": 0.04,
        "q9": 0.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.2,
        "q5": -0.1,
        "q9": 0.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.05,
        "q5": 0.1,
        "q9": 0.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 1,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 4,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.04,
     "d2": 0.034999999999999996,
     "d3": 0.052500000000000005
    },
    "g0": 0.052500000000000005,
    "weights": [
     0.3,
     0.3,
     0.3,
     0.1
    ],
    "combos": [],
    "diagnose": false,
    "chosen": [],
    "chosenNet": 0.0
   },
   "note": "余额 1：没有可选组合，不诊断。"
  },
  {
   "name": "tie_by_id",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 0.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d10",
     "d2"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d2": {
        "q1": -0.2,
        "q5": 0.0,
        "q9": 0.2
       },
       "d10": {
        "q1": -0.2,
        "q5": 0.0,
        "q9": 0.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.3,
        "q9": 0.5
       },
       "d10": {
        "q1": 0.1,
        "q5": 0.3,
        "q9": 0.5
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 7,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 1,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d2": 0.15,
     "d10": 0.15
    },
    "g0": 0.15,
    "weights": [
     0.45,
     0.45,
     0.1
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d2"
      ],
      "voi": 0.07180975286849074,
      "rHat": 3,
      "mPrime": 1.75,
      "value": 0.0628335337599294,
      "cost": 0.025,
      "net": 0.03783353375992939
     },
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d10"
      ],
      "voi": 0.07180975286849074,
      "rHat": 3,
      "mPrime": 1.75,
      "value": 0.0628335337599294,
      "cost": 0.025,
      "net": 0.03783353375992939
     }
    ],
    "diagnose": true,
    "chosen": [
     "d2"
    ],
    "chosenNet": 0.03783353375992939
   },
   "note": "两个实验的预测完全一样，净值相同（差不到 1e-12），取实验编号小的 d2。"
  },
  {
   "name": "settle_mixed",
   "section": "6.12 结算；6.9",
   "input": {
    "b": 1.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.02,
        "q5": 1.05,
        "q9": 1.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.95,
        "q5": 1.0,
        "q9": 1.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.03,
        "q9": 1.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 1.1,
        "q5": 1.2,
        "q9": 1.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.9,
        "q5": 0.95,
        "q9": 1.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.98,
        "q5": 1.04,
        "q9": 1.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.8,
        "q5": 0.9,
        "q9": 1.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.05,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "epsilon": 0.01,
    "outcomes": {
     "d1": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 1.045
     },
     "d2": {
      "kind": "insufficient"
     },
     "d3": {
      "kind": "untested"
     }
    }
   },
   "expected": {
    "experiments": {
     "d1": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.992,
       "q5": 1.0428015564202335,
       "q9": 1.0922077922077922
      },
      "gain": 0.04499999999999993,
      "worldBits": 10.862272556463013,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": 450,
       "p": 0.0010708333333332145,
       "surprise": 9.867050331076888
      },
      "disagreement": 0.14778939669397495
     },
     "d2": {
      "outcome": "insufficient",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.8466911764705882,
       "q5": 1.0063258232235701,
       "q9": 1.2533088235294119
      }
     },
     "d3": {
      "outcome": "untested",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.9198823529411765,
       "q5": 1.068937125748503,
       "q9": 1.192
      }
     }
    },
    "judgments": {
     "e1": {
      "d1": "confirmed"
     },
     "e2": {
      "d1": "confirmed"
     },
     "e3": {
      "d1": "confirmed"
     }
    },
    "direction": {
     "weights": [
      0.5603112840466926,
      0.2801556420233463,
      0.14007782101167315,
      0.019455252918287938
     ],
     "weightsKept": false,
     "gains": {
      "d1": {
       "gain": 0.04499999999999993,
       "measured": true
      },
      "d2": {
       "gain": 0.042996108949416356,
       "measured": false
      },
      "d3": {
       "gain": 0.05749027237354086,
       "measured": false
      }
     },
     "experiment": "d3",
     "gain": 0.05749027237354086,
     "found": true
    }
   },
   "note": "d1 有效，d2 证据不足（不判、不记账），d3 没做。研究者 2 交了两条解释，各占他那份的一半。"
  },
  {
   "name": "settle_two_valid",
   "section": "6.12 结算；6.9",
   "input": {
    "b": 1.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.02,
        "q5": 1.05,
        "q9": 1.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.95,
        "q5": 1.0,
        "q9": 1.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.03,
        "q9": 1.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 1.1,
        "q5": 1.2,
        "q9": 1.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.9,
        "q5": 0.95,
        "q9": 1.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.98,
        "q5": 1.04,
        "q9": 1.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.8,
        "q5": 0.9,
        "q9": 1.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.05,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "epsilon": 0.01,
    "outcomes": {
     "d1": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 1.07
     },
     "d2": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 1.25
     },
     "d3": {
      "kind": "untested"
     }
    }
   },
   "expected": {
    "experiments": {
     "d1": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.992,
       "q5": 1.0428015564202335,
       "q9": 1.0922077922077922
      },
      "gain": 0.07000000000000006,
      "worldBits": 10.862272556463013,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": 700,
       "p": 0.0008458333333332394,
       "surprise": 10.20733896308559
      },
      "disagreement": 0.14778939669397495
     },
     "d2": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.8466911764705882,
       "q5": 1.0063258232235701,
       "q9": 1.2533088235294119
      },
      "gain": 0.25,
      "worldBits": 12.5514004191889,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": 2500,
       "p": 9.714285714284636e-05,
       "surprise": 13.329532555244237
      },
      "disagreement": 0.5374126633995484
     },
     "d3": {
      "outcome": "untested",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.9198823529411765,
       "q5": 1.068937125748503,
       "q9": 1.192
      }
     }
    },
    "judgments": {
     "e1": {
      "d1": "confirmed",
      "d2": "denied"
     },
     "e2": {
      "d1": "denied",
      "d2": "confirmed"
     },
     "e3": {
      "d1": "confirmed",
      "d2": "denied"
     }
    },
    "direction": {
     "weights": [
      0.0,
      0.9527410207939508,
      0.0,
      0.04725897920604919
     ],
     "weightsKept": false,
     "gains": {
      "d1": {
       "gain": 0.07000000000000006,
       "measured": true
      },
      "d2": {
       "gain": 0.25,
       "measured": true
      },
      "d3": {
       "gain": -0.04409262759924386,
       "measured": false
      }
     },
     "experiment": "d2",
     "gain": 0.25,
     "found": true
    }
   },
   "note": "两个有效实验：权重按两处密度连乘更新；d2 的实测 +0.25 落在 e2 的范围里、其余两条之外。"
  },
  {
   "name": "settle_no_direction",
   "section": "6.12 结算；6.9",
   "input": {
    "b": 1.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.02,
        "q5": 1.05,
        "q9": 1.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.95,
        "q5": 1.0,
        "q9": 1.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.03,
        "q9": 1.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 1.1,
        "q5": 1.2,
        "q9": 1.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.9,
        "q5": 0.95,
        "q9": 1.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.98,
        "q5": 1.04,
        "q9": 1.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.8,
        "q5": 0.9,
        "q9": 1.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.05,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "epsilon": 0.01,
    "outcomes": {
     "d1": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 0.97
     },
     "d2": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 0.8
     },
     "d3": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 0.9
     }
    }
   },
   "expected": {
    "experiments": {
     "d1": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.992,
       "q5": 1.0428015564202335,
       "q9": 1.0922077922077922
      },
      "gain": -0.030000000000000027,
      "worldBits": 10.862272556463013,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": -300,
       "p": 0.00013333333333331854,
       "surprise": 12.872674880270766
      },
      "disagreement": 0.14778939669397495
     },
     "d2": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.8466911764705882,
       "q5": 1.0063258232235701,
       "q9": 1.2533088235294119
      },
      "gain": -0.19999999999999996,
      "worldBits": 12.5514004191889,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": -2000,
       "p": 9.714285714284646e-05,
       "surprise": 13.329532555244235
      },
      "disagreement": 0.5374126633995484
     },
     "d3": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.9198823529411765,
       "q5": 1.068937125748503,
       "q9": 1.192
      },
      "gain": -0.09999999999999998,
      "worldBits": 12.165720869087144,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": -1000,
       "p": 0.00023611111111108532,
       "surprise": 12.048246444854218
      },
      "disagreement": 0.19153258930906247
     }
    },
    "judgments": {
     "e1": {
      "d1": "denied",
      "d2": "denied",
      "d3": "denied"
     },
     "e2": {
      "d1": "denied",
      "d2": "denied",
      "d3": "confirmed"
     },
     "e3": {
      "d1": "denied",
      "d2": "confirmed",
      "d3": "denied"
     }
    },
    "direction": {
     "weights": [
      0.0,
      0.0,
      0.0,
      1.0
     ],
     "weightsKept": false,
     "gains": {
      "d1": {
       "gain": -0.030000000000000027,
       "measured": true
      },
      "d2": {
       "gain": -0.19999999999999996,
       "measured": true
      },
      "d3": {
       "gain": -0.09999999999999998,
       "measured": true
      }
     },
     "experiment": "d1",
     "gain": -0.030000000000000027,
     "found": false
    }
   },
   "note": "全部实验的收益都不为正（−0.03、−0.2、−0.1）：最大收益 −0.03 ≤ 0，记没有指出能涨分的方向。"
  },
  {
   "name": "settle_all_insufficient",
   "section": "6.12 结算；6.9",
   "input": {
    "b": 1.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.02,
        "q5": 1.05,
        "q9": 1.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.95,
        "q5": 1.0,
        "q9": 1.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.03,
        "q9": 1.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 1.1,
        "q5": 1.2,
        "q9": 1.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.9,
        "q5": 0.95,
        "q9": 1.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.98,
        "q5": 1.04,
        "q9": 1.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.8,
        "q5": 0.9,
        "q9": 1.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.05,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "epsilon": 0.01,
    "outcomes": {
     "d1": {
      "kind": "insufficient"
     },
     "d2": {
      "kind": "insufficient"
     },
     "d3": {
      "kind": "insufficient"
     }
    }
   },
   "expected": {
    "experiments": {
     "d1": {
      "outcome": "insufficient",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.992,
       "q5": 1.0428015564202335,
       "q9": 1.0922077922077922
      }
     },
     "d2": {
      "outcome": "insufficient",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.8466911764705882,
       "q5": 1.0063258232235701,
       "q9": 1.2533088235294119
      }
     },
     "d3": {
      "outcome": "insufficient",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.9198823529411765,
       "q5": 1.068937125748503,
       "q9": 1.192
      }
     }
    },
    "judgments": {
     "e1": {},
     "e2": {},
     "e3": {}
    },
    "direction": {
     "weights": [
      0.45,
      0.225,
      0.225,
      0.1
     ],
     "weightsKept": false,
     "gains": {
      "d1": {
       "gain": 0.04225000000000004,
       "measured": false
      },
      "d2": {
       "gain": 0.02750000000000002,
       "measured": false
      },
      "d3": {
       "gain": 0.06375,
       "measured": false
      }
     },
     "experiment": "d3",
     "gain": 0.06375,
     "found": true
    }
   },
   "note": "没有一个有效实验：不判、不记账，权重保持起始权重，方向按起始权重估的期望收益。"
  },
  {
   "name": "settle_outside_all",
   "section": "6.12 结算；6.9",
   "input": {
    "b": 1.0,
    "direction": "maximize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2",
     "d3"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.02,
        "q5": 1.05,
        "q9": 1.08
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.95,
        "q5": 1.0,
        "q9": 1.05
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.2
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 1.0,
        "q5": 1.03,
        "q9": 1.06
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 1.1,
        "q5": 1.2,
        "q9": 1.3
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 0.9,
        "q5": 0.95,
        "q9": 1.0
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e3",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.98,
        "q5": 1.04,
        "q9": 1.1
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.8,
        "q5": 0.9,
        "q9": 1.0
       },
       "d3": {
        "q1": 1.05,
        "q5": 1.1,
        "q9": 1.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "epsilon": 0.01,
    "outcomes": {
     "d1": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 3.0
     },
     "d2": {
      "kind": "untested"
     },
     "d3": {
      "kind": "untested"
     }
    }
   },
   "expected": {
    "experiments": {
     "d1": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.992,
       "q5": 1.0428015564202335,
       "q9": 1.0922077922077922
      },
      "gain": 2.0,
      "worldBits": 10.862272556463013,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "priorZero",
       "bin": 20000,
       "p": 0.0
      },
      "disagreement": 0.14778939669397495
     },
     "d2": {
      "outcome": "untested",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.8466911764705882,
       "q5": 1.0063258232235701,
       "q9": 1.2533088235294119
      }
     },
     "d3": {
      "outcome": "untested",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.9198823529411765,
       "q5": 1.068937125748503,
       "q9": 1.192
      }
     }
    },
    "judgments": {
     "e1": {
      "d1": "denied"
     },
     "e2": {
      "d1": "denied"
     },
     "e3": {
      "d1": "denied"
     }
    },
    "direction": {
     "weights": [
      0.45,
      0.225,
      0.225,
      0.1
     ],
     "weightsKept": true,
     "gains": {
      "d1": {
       "gain": 2.0,
       "measured": true
      },
      "d2": {
       "gain": 0.02750000000000002,
       "measured": false
      },
      "d3": {
       "gain": 0.06375,
       "measured": false
      }
     },
     "experiment": "d1",
     "gain": 2.0,
     "found": true
    }
   },
   "note": "d1 实测 +2.0 落在所有成分（含开放预留）的范围之外，权重无从更新：保持起始权重（weightsKept）。"
  },
  {
   "name": "minimize_all",
   "section": "6.12",
   "input": {
    "b": 1.0,
    "direction": "minimize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.85,
        "q5": 0.9,
        "q9": 0.95
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.9,
        "q5": 1.0,
        "q9": 1.1
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.8,
        "q5": 0.85,
        "q9": 0.9
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.95,
        "q5": 1.05,
        "q9": 1.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "balance": 7,
    "batchCap": 2,
    "maxExperiments": 4,
    "u": 0.5,
    "decay": 0.5
   },
   "expected": {
    "priorGains": {
     "d1": 0.125,
     "d2": -0.024999999999999994
    },
    "g0": 0.125,
    "weights": [
     0.45,
     0.45,
     0.1
    ],
    "combos": [
     {
      "experiments": [
       "d1",
       "d2"
      ],
      "voi": 0.010397222222222214,
      "rHat": 3,
      "mPrime": 1.75,
      "value": 0.009097569444444436,
      "cost": 0.020833333333333332,
      "net": -0.011735763888888896
     }
    ],
    "diagnose": false,
    "chosen": [],
    "chosenNet": 0.0
   },
   "note": "越小越好：收益 = b − x。d1 两条解释都预测降到 0.9 左右（收益约 +0.1），d2 预测上升。"
  },
  {
   "name": "settle_minimize",
   "section": "6.12 结算；6.9",
   "input": {
    "b": 1.0,
    "direction": "minimize",
    "lambda": 0.1,
    "experiments": [
     "d1",
     "d2"
    ],
    "explanations": [
     {
      "id": "e1",
      "author": "researcher-1",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.85,
        "q5": 0.9,
        "q9": 0.95
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.9,
        "q5": 1.0,
        "q9": 1.1
       }
      }
     },
     {
      "id": "e2",
      "author": "researcher-2",
      "ranges": {
       "d1": {
        "q1": 0.8,
        "q5": 0.85,
        "q9": 0.9
       },
       "d2": {
        "q1": 0.95,
        "q5": 1.05,
        "q9": 1.15
       }
      }
     }
    ],
    "epsilon": 0.01,
    "outcomes": {
     "d1": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 0.88
     },
     "d2": {
      "kind": "valid",
      "score": 1.05
     }
    }
   },
   "expected": {
    "experiments": {
     "d1": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.8042553191489362,
       "q5": 0.875,
       "q9": 0.9457446808510638
      },
      "gain": 0.12,
      "worldBits": 11.270948490815508,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": -1200,
       "p": 0.0007399999999999179,
       "surprise": 10.400187108808021
      },
      "disagreement": 0.2390359525563106
     },
     "d2": {
      "outcome": "valid",
      "merged": {
       "q1": 0.8964285714285714,
       "q5": 1.025,
       "q9": 1.1535714285714285
      },
      "gain": -0.050000000000000044,
      "worldBits": 12.14559114140212,
      "surprise": {
       "status": "ok",
       "bin": 500,
       "p": 0.0003711111111110703,
       "surprise": 11.39586118340523
      },
      "disagreement": 0.11951797627815353
     }
    },
    "judgments": {
     "e1": {
      "d1": "confirmed",
      "d2": "confirmed"
     },
     "e2": {
      "d1": "confirmed",
      "d2": "confirmed"
     }
    },
    "direction": {
     "weights": [
      0.4961715160796319,
      0.496171516079633,
      0.0076569678407350855
     ],
     "weightsKept": false,
     "gains": {
      "d1": {
       "gain": 0.12,
       "measured": true
      },
      "d2": {
       "gain": -0.050000000000000044,
       "measured": true
      }
     },
     "experiment": "d1",
     "gain": 0.12,
     "found": true
    }
   },
   "note": "越小越好：d1 实测 0.88，收益 = 1.0 − 0.88 = 0.12；d2 实测 1.05，收益 −0.05。"
  }
 ]
}