fix: probe for the telemetry table before creating it

PostgreSQL checks the schema CREATE privilege before the IF NOT EXISTS
existence test, so an account with only table-level INSERT was denied on
CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS even though the table was right there and
writable. The denial set _failed and the whole recorder went no-op for
the process lifetime, silently: 150+ calls downstream lost their latency,
token and cost rows with nothing but one warning to show for it.

The probe is the direct fix. The larger fix is the criterion: structural
degradation now means "provably cannot write" (pool creation failed, or
the table is absent and cannot be created), not "something threw during
init" -- a probe or acquire failure just skips the row and retries on the
next call.

SQLite stays as it is on purpose. Measured: it short-circuits the
statement at parse time, so it passes even under another connection's
EXCLUSIVE lock or on a read-only file. A probe there would buy nothing;
the docstring now says so to keep symmetry-minded future edits away.

research-wiki/index.md

@@ -1,8 +1,8 @@
 # Research Wiki 索引
 
-> 自动生成，更新时间：2026-08-06 14:58 UTC
+> 自动生成，更新时间：2026-08-07 15:11 UTC
 
-## design (25)
+## design (26)
 - [2026-07-20-m1-core-design](designs/2026-07-20-m1-core-design.md) `design:2026-07-20-m1-core-design`
 - [2026-07-20-m2-distributed-design](designs/2026-07-20-m2-distributed-design.md) `design:2026-07-20-m2-distributed-design`
 - [2026-07-21-m25-resilience-design](designs/2026-07-21-m25-resilience-design.md) `design:2026-07-21-m25-resilience-design`
@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@
 - [M4 迁移验证设计(GovDoc→CHS,发 v1.0)](designs/m4-migration.md) `design:m4-migration`
 - [stall 判定改为非生产性等待口径](designs/issue8-stall-budget.md) `design:issue8-stall-budget`
 - [响应可观测字段扩展(Issue #3)](designs/response-observability-fields.md) `design:response-observability-fields`
+- [建表前先探测,判死只认「确定写不进去」](designs/issue9-telemetry-ddl-probe.md) `design:issue9-telemetry-ddl-probe`
 - [推理开关能力建模与 reasoning_tokens 采集(issue #5 + #6)](designs/2026-08-02-thinking-capability-design.md) `design:2026-08-02-thinking-capability-design`
 - [治理后端故障归位为 scope 级不可用(Issue #7)](designs/governance-backend-error.md) `design:governance-backend-error`
 - [采样参数透传设计(issue #4)](designs/sampling-params.md) `design:sampling-params`